Signals vs Noise – Information Defense Network
On October 1, the Alberta Prosperity Project (APP) issued a press release claiming it had held “cabinet-level” talks in Washington, D.C. about Alberta’s independence. According to the group, this was the second such round of discussions with members of the Trump camp this year. At face value, that sounds like a seismic development: American political power brokers openly entertaining the idea of Alberta breaking away from Canada.
But peel back the layers, and the cracks appear. There are no names attached, no photos of the alleged meetings, no official notes or government confirmations. The APP simply asks Canadians to take them at their word.
And that’s the problem. The APP is not a government entity. It has no democratic mandate to speak on behalf of Alberta, and no authority to conduct foreign relations. Unless formally sanctioned by the United Conservative Party government and no evidence suggests it is (there are loose associations), these trips to Washington are nothing more than theatre. Yet that theatre is dangerous. Because in the world of information warfare, even shadow play can reshape what people perceive as possible, plausible, or inevitable.
The theatre of ambiguity
Disinformation rarely announces itself as a bald-faced lie. More often it’s about framing, omission, or deliberate vagueness. Social scientists call this the erosion of “epistemic consensus”, the ability of a society to agree on what counts as true. Once that consensus cracks, competing stories flourish even when they lack evidence.
The APP’s “cabinet-level talks” are a textbook example. Without documentation, the claim floats in a cloud of ambiguity. Maybe it happened; maybe it didn’t. Maybe it was a hallway handshake dressed up as diplomacy. The uncertainty itself is the weapon. When truth is negotiable, propaganda and fact carry equal weight in the public square.
Undermining trust in institutions
This ambiguity serves a deeper purpose: weakening the legitimacy of democratic institutions. Research consistently shows that disinformation campaigns target not only facts, but the institutions tasked with upholding them, the courts, elections, the press. The more people believe these institutions are corrupt or broken, the more open they become to radical alternatives. This speaks to the constant “broken Canada” narrative being pushed out.
The APP’s messaging leans heavily on this playbook. Their rhetoric describes Ottawa as an oppressor, repeatedly invoking “betrayals” and “choked economies.” The federal government is cast not as a flawed partner in a federation, but as a hostile force. Once that image takes hold, secession stops looking like a fringe fantasy and starts to feel like common sense. These messages are further amplified buy the UPC and other federal parties.
Building momentum through amplification
Of course, a claim only matters if it travels. And in the digital age, amplification is everything. Studies show that bots and coordinated networks disproportionately boost low-credibility content, especially in the crucial early hours when narratives gain traction.
That pattern played out here. The APP’s press release didn’t land with mainstream media scrutiny. Instead, it circulated through the group’s own website, its social channels, and sympathetic outlets like Western Standard. Repetition created the illusion of momentum: if enough platforms echo the message, the story begins to feel real, even without proof or legitimacy.
Shadow diplomacy and foreign interference
Canada is no stranger to foreign interference. Security agencies and parliamentary inquiries have documented how states like China and Russia use covert influence operations—sometimes with local partners—to shape narratives, undermine trust, and exploit existing divisions. The tactics are consistent: secret meetings, backchannel messaging, and ambiguous claims of legitimacy.
The APP’s outreach to Trump-aligned actors fits this pattern, even if no direct foreign sponsorship has been proven. By presenting themselves as serious diplomatic players, they attempt to launder legitimacy for Alberta independence. It doesn’t matter whether Washington is genuinely engaged or politely humoring them. The press release alone signals to their base: “America is listening.” That suggestion is the payload.
Normalizing the radical
This is how legitimacy laundering works. Ideas that once seemed outlandish, breaking up Canada, dissolving Confederation, are reframed as reasonable policy discussions. By invoking “cabinet-level talks” and “energy security,” APP wraps separatism in the language of diplomacy and trade. It is no longer a radical demand but a viable “option.”
Globally, separatist and extremist movements have used this tactic for decades. By embedding radical goals within respectable frames, economic development, regional identity, security—they shift the Overton window. What begins as outrageous slowly becomes debatable, then plausible, then mainstream.
Democracy by a thousand leaks
This is how democracy erodes: not with a coup, but with a slow drip of doubt and normalization. Each APP press release, each social media post, each sympathetic echo contributes to a creeping sense of inevitability. “Momentum is unstoppable,” the group insists. Say it often enough, and eventually some will believe it.
Canada’s own public inquiry on foreign interference warned that even when interference doesn’t swing an election, it damages the democratic environment by undermining trust in the process. That’s the deeper risk. Not that Alberta will suddenly secede because of a meeting in Washington, but that Canadians will grow used to shadow diplomacy and start mistaking theatre for statecraft.
Why it matters now
The Alberta Prosperity Project has no mandate to represent Alberta in foreign affairs. Its attempts to act as a diplomatic voice blur the boundary between political activism and governance. That blur is precisely what disinformation thrives on.
When citizens stop distinguishing between theatre and authority, they leave space for authoritarians—foreign or domestic—to exploit. Once trust in institutions is hollowed out, rebuilding it is far harder than tearing it down.
That is why these press releases cannot be dismissed as harmless posturing. They are signals in an ongoing influence operation, designed to chip away at trust, legitimacy, and cohesion in Canada’s democracy.
The lesson is simple: treat shadow diplomacy for what it is, propaganda theatre, not statecraft. And never confuse noise for signal.
References
- Western Standard – “Alberta independence on the table in talks with US officials” (2025).
- Lewandowsky, S. et al. “Misinformation and the epistemic integrity of democracy.” Current Opinion in Psychology (2023).
- V-Dem Institute. Democracy Endangered by Online Disinformation (Policy Brief #39, 2021).
- APP press materials, e.g., “Alberta at the Crossroads.”
- Shao, C. et al. “The spread of low-credibility content by social bots.” Nature Communications (2018).
- Canadian Security Intelligence Service. Foreign Interference: Threat to Canada’s Democratic Process (2023).
- Public Inquiry on Foreign Interference in Federal Electoral Processes. Initial Report (2024).
